Anthropic Diffusion ABM v3

When does the exponential bend? Agent-based forecast of revenue through 2033.

v3.0 · 6/8 validation checks pass

Simulation parameters

Forecast horizon (quarters)40

40 quarters = Q1 2024 → Q4 2033

Random seed42

Same seed → identical trajectory

k (saturation rate)1.50

U = U_max·(1−e^(−k·c)). Higher → faster economic-value saturation.

U_max (useful-cap ceiling)1.00

Asymptotic economic value extractable from capability.

c_max (raw-cap ceiling)2.50

Hard ceiling on raw model capability.

G_0 (GW in 2024)3.0 GW

Industry compute at start of Q1 2024.

Annual growth rate3.00×

3× per year is Amodei's stated value.

Ceiling K (GW)500 GW

Logistic saturation ceiling. Bounded by power infrastructure.

AGI median year2028.00

Weibull-distributed event. Triggers segment-specific M₀ multipliers.

Force AGI to trigger early

Override the Weibull and trigger at Q3 2025. Useful for stress tests.

Herding (q amplifier)1.00

Multiplies Bass imitation pressure across segments.

OSS catchup rate5.0%/Q

Fraction of cap gap closed per quarter.

OSS floor gap0.10

Asymptotic gap OSS never closes (RLHF, data quality).

OSS pressure strength1.00

How aggressively OSS commoditization compresses Anthropic price.

Tune the parameters and click Run to start the simulation.